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HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND
MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 113.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 113.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 113.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 113.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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