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HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO
THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND 
MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 480SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 113.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 114.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.4N 118.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.3N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 113.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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