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HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO
THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND
MEXICO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 480SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 113.2W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 114.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.4N 118.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.3N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 113.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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