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HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST OF BAJA AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN QUINTIN TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.0W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 160SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.0W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 112.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.1N 114.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.2N 115.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.8N 116.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.2N 119.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 113.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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