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TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.8W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.8W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 105.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 107.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 111.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 112.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.3N 116.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 103.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
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