ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
recent scatterometer data indicate that Kay continues to weaken,
with maximum winds of about 35 kt that are confined to an area over
the Pacific east and northeast of the center. Satellite imagery
shows no organized central convection, with the remaining
thunderstorms well to the north of the center over southern
California. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on the
aircraft and scatterometer data. However, stronger winds enhanced
by the mountainous terrain are occuring over portions of southern
Unless the central convection re-develops, which appears unlikely
over sea surface temperatures of 21-22C, Kay should decay to a
remnant low tonight with the maximum winds decreasing below 35 kt.
The global models are in good agreement that the remnant low will
dissipate between 72-96 h, and the official forecast follows this.
While Kay is currently moving northwest or 305/10 kt, it is
starting its expected turn away from land and should move westward
at a slower forward speed during the next 12-24 h. After that, a
low-level ridge to the west of the remnant low should steer the
system slowly southward and southeastward until it dissipates.
There was again little change in the track forecast guidance since
the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the
Although Kay's intensity has decreased, wind, surf, and rainfall
impacts continue to extend far from the center so users should not
focus on the exact forecast track of Kay.
1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will
likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides,
across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland
northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and
small stream flooding is likely across Southern California,
especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and also possible in
the Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and southern Nevada.
2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.
3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 31.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 31.4N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0600Z 31.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 30.9N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 29.2N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW