ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022
Kay continues to lose organization in satellite imagery, as there
is no longer an eye present and the central convection continues to
decrease. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are in the 65-77 kt range, and based on this the initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 75 kt. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate Kay.
Kay is now over 23C sea surface temperatures and will be traversing
progressively cooler SSTs over the next couple of days. That,
along with land interaction and a gradually drying mid-level air
mass, is expected to cause gradual weakening over the next couple of
days. However, Kay is forecast to remain a hurricane when it passes
near or over the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula
in about 12 h, and remain a tropical storm as it passes just west
of the northwestern portion of the peninsula on Friday. The cyclone
is expected to lose its convection and become post-tropical between
48-60 h, and then decay to a remnant low pressure area by 72 h.
Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 345/13 kt. There is no
change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A mid-level
ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a north-northwestward
heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker
and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward,
and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over
the eastern Pacific. The track guidance has changed little since
the last advisory, so the new track forecast has only minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.
Kay remains a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an
extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of
southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California
peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes
landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja
peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane
through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall
impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on
the exact forecast track.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja
California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico
through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
is likely across Southern California beginning Friday, especially in
and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream
flooding is possible beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast later this morning through
this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.
3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 25.8N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN