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Hurricane Kay Discussion Number  13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Corrected first Key Message

Kay appears to be on a strengthening trend. Satellite images 
indicate that the hurricane has a large eye, with a diameter of 
about 25 n mi, and a nearly symmetric eyewall. There are some dry 
slots between the eyewall and rainbands, however. The subjective 
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 
T5.0/90 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt based on 
that data. This intensity estimate is below the latest ADT values 
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, so it is possible that 
Kay could be a little stronger. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is en route to investigate Kay this afternoon, and the data 
the plane collects will be very helpful in assessing the intensity 
and structure of the hurricane.
 
Kay will likely strengthen a little more, and it could become
a major hurricane while it remains in conducive environmental
conditions today. However, by early tomorrow, the hurricane is
expected to move over sub 26 C SSTs and move over progressively
cooler waters during the following few days. The cooler SSTs and
drier air should cause a steady weakening trend later this week
and this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one in the short term, and lies at the high end of
the guidance during the first few days of the forecast.
 
The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, and that motion should
continue for the next couple of days taking the core of Kay very
near or over the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday
and Friday. After that time, when Kay moves close to northern Baja,
a turn to the left is expected as the shallow system becomes steered
by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The
model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track
forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and close to
the various consensus models.
 
Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive 
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern 
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is 
likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the 
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a 
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high 
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so 
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.
 
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including 
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of 
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning.  Flash and 
urban flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of southern 
California and southwestern Arizona Friday night into Saturday.
 
2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected 
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 21.1N 112.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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