ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022
There has been no significant deep convection associated with
Javier for nearly 16 hours, and it's doubtful that any
organized deep convection will attempt a comeback. Accordingly,
Javier has become a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the
final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is
lowered to 30 kt, which is in agreement with subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The remnant low should
continue to gradually spin down over cooler sea surface
temperatures during the next several days, and the deterministic
models indicate that the surface circulation will become a trough
of low pressure toward the end of the week. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the
intensity model consensus.
The low continues to move away from the Baja California peninsula
and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. The cyclone should
turn westward soon in the low-level trade flow as a shallow remnant
low and maintain this general heading until it dissipates in 5 days.
This is the final NHC advisory on Javier. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 27.2N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/1800Z 27.8N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 27.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 27.1N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 26.8N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 26.6N 131.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 26.5N 133.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN