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Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022
Javier is nearly post-tropical, having produced little to no deep
convection since late this morning. Post-tropical transition
will likely conclude tonight since the cyclone is moving over
cold water that should prevent the redevelopment of organized deep
convection. Earlier ASCAT data showed peak winds near 40 kt, so the
initial intensity was held at that value, possibly conservatively
so. Without deep convection to sustain it, Javier should slowly
weaken over the next several days, eventually dissipating by the
middle of next week. The new official intensity forecast is nearly
identical to the previous one and is close to the intensity model
consensus.
The tropical storm is now moving away from the Baja California
peninsula. Low-level easterly steering flow should cause Javier to
turn westward by the end of the weekend. By then the cyclone is
forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it should continue
westward through the middle of the week until it dissipates. The NHC
track forecast is heavily based on the TVCN track consensus aid with
no changes of note made from the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 26.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 27.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 28.0N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 27.9N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 27.6N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 27.0N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 26.7N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 26.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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