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Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022
The organization of Javier has not changed significantly over the
past few hours. Satellite infrared imagery indicate that convection
is deepest in the western portion of the tropical storm's elongated
circulation with an apparent dry slot in the northwest quadrant.
The initial intensity remains at 40 kt and is a blend of the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening for the next 24 hours, with warm sea surface
temperatures, low deep-layer vertical wind shear and sufficient
environmental moisture. However, Javier still has a relatively
broad circulation, so the NHC forecast only calls for slight
strengthening. It should be noted that the peak of the official
intensity forecast is now at the top of the model guidance. Beyond
a day, the system is predicted to weaken as it moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier environment. Javier
is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.
The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt. The reasoning
behind the track forecast is unchanged. A mid-tropospheric ridge to
the north is the primary synoptic feature steering Javier. This
ridge is expected to build westward and turn the cyclone to the
northwest and west-northwest in the next couple of days. The
official forecast has shifted eastward again towards the model
consensus aids. Based on the latest forecast, the Government of
Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for Baja California Sur.
Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast
during the next couple of days.
1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 21.8N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 23.2N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 25.0N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 26.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 26.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0600Z 26.9N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 26.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 26.3N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z 25.8N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW