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Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Some limited thunderstorm activity has recently developed around
the periphery of Ivette's circulation, but so far it has lacked
organization as strong easterly shear continues to affect the
cyclone. If the convection does not gain organization soon, Ivette
will likely become a remnant low as early as this afternoon. The
initial intensity has been held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which
is based on a recent Dvorak current intensity number of T2.0 from
TAFB.
Strong easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere
are expected to lead to weakening over the next couple of days.
Assuming the current thunderstorm activity does not become
organized, Ivette should become post-tropical later today. The
remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days.
Ivette remains within an area of weak steering flow and it has
only drifted west-southwestward over the past several hours. The
global model guidance suggests that the cyclone should begin to
move westward or west-northwestward within the next day or so as
the low-level flow becomes better defined to the north of the
system. The new NHC track forecast is along the southern side of
the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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