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Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022
 
A burst of deep convection that developed in the western part of
Ivette's circulation last evening has since been sheared away,
leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  Despite the loss of
convection, a blend of TAFB's Dvorak CI number (2.0) with UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON estimates supports maintaining 30 kt for this
advisory.  It's possible that some convection could redevelop since
Ivette remains over warm waters of about 28 degrees Celsius.
However, strong deep-layer easterly shear of about 25 kt and a
relatively dry atmosphere are likely to cause any new convection to
be short lived and on the less-than-organized side of the spectrum.
Therefore, barring any surprises, Ivette is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low later today, and gradually spin down during the
next few days.  Global models are in generally good agreement that
the remnant low should open up into a trough in about 4 days.
 
With the development and dissipation of recent convection, Ivette's
movement has been erratic, and it's actually been nearly stationary 
for the past few hours.  Since yesterday afternoon, however, the 
center has generally moved west-southwestward (245 degrees) at about 
2 kt.  The steering flow around the depression is weak at the 
moment, and there is greater-than-normal spread in the track 
guidance.  In general, though, the remnant low is expected to move 
slowly westward to west-northwestward at 5 kt or less until 
dissipation.  The new NHC track has been shifted southward from the 
previous forecast, mainly to account for Ivette's recent motion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 17.2N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/0600Z 17.6N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z 17.9N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1800Z 18.2N 118.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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