ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Ivette this evening has degraded, with 
the prior burst of deep convection shearing away to the west and 
dissipating, though a smaller convective cell has begun to redevelop 
on the southwest side of the circulation. The definition of the 
center itself on both conventional satellite and microwave imagery 
appears more diffuse than before, suggesting that the earlier 
convective burst did not help to tighten up the circulation. While 
earlier scatterometer data indicated tropical-storm-force winds 
existed in the convective northwest quadrant of Ivette, more recent 
surface wind observations from Clarion island, also in this 
quadrant, are lower than earlier, sustained at only 21 kt with 
gusts up to 28 kt. These observations, in combination with the 
degradation in the satellite structure this evening, support 
lowering the intensity back to 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The ongoing moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear is not
expected to subside for the next several days. However, as
previously mentioned, Ivette is expected to remain over sufficently
warm water that may allow occasional convective bursts over this
period, and it is difficult to determine when this activity will
become insufficient to maintain Ivette's status as a tropical
cyclone. It is still presumed that the ongoing shear will be too
hostile to allow these convective bursts to remain organized, and
like the previous advisory, gradual weakening is still forecast. The
latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Ivette becoming a
post-tropical remnant low in about 24 hours. One alternative
scenario is that the system may be able to persist as a weak
tropical cyclone a bit longer than forecasted if convection
redevelops like that seen earlier today.
 
There has been a slight acceleration in Ivette's westward motion
this evening, now estimated at 260/3 kt. A general slow westward
motion is forecast over the next several days following the weak
low-level steering, in addition to occasional convective bursts on
the west side of the circulation that may continue to tug it in
that direction. The latest NHC forecast track remains close to the
consensus aids and is just a touch north of the previous forecast
track after 24 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 17.6N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 17.6N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 17.7N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z 18.0N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z 18.6N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
NNNN