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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022
 
Deep convection has persisted over the southwestern portion of the 
depression's circulation today, however the center remains exposed 
due to moderate to strong shear.  The area of convection has less 
coverage than it did earlier today and the subjective and objective 
T-numbers from SAB and UW/CIMSS have lowered accordingly. A blend of 
the various satellite intensity estimates still supports a 30 kt 
initial intensity, but this could be generous. The ASCAT satellite 
unfortunately missed the system so there is no scatterometer data 
is help determine the system's intensity. 

The system is not likely to strengthen as the shear that has been 
plaguing the depression is forecast to increase tonight. By Monday, 
gradual weakening is expected to begin as the system remains 
affected by moderate to strong shear and even drier mid-level air 
impinges on the cyclone.  Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS 
and ECMWF models suggest the system will struggle to produce 
organized deep convection by tomorrow and the forecast calls for the 
depression to become a remnant low within 24 hours or so. 

The depression has been meandering since the previous advisory, but 
the longer-term motion appears to be just south of due west at 
about 4 kt.  As the depression weakens, it will be steered by a 
low-level ridge to the north, and a slow westward to 
west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. 
The updated NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous 
track due to the more southward initial position, but the official 
forecast remains near the latest TCVE consensus model. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 18.0N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 18.0N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.9N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z 17.6N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z 17.6N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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