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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022
The depression is struggling against strong easterly shear, and the
exposed low-level circulation center is now about 70 n mi from the
edge of its associated deep convection. The initial intensity is
held at 30 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the latest
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.
The shear impacting the cyclone is forecast to increase even more
over the next day or so. The combination of this shear and dry
mid-level air entraining into the depression's circulation is
expected to disrupt the development of significant deep convection
near its center. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest
that perhaps a short-lived diurnal cycle of convection could develop
near the center of the depression later this morning. Thereafter,
those models suggest the system will degenerate into a remnant low,
and the NHC forecast indicates that the depression should become a
remnant low as soon as tonight. With an anticipated lack of
appreciable deep convection near the cyclone's center, no
strengthening is forecast. The system is expected to slowly weaken
early this week and dissipate by midweek.
The depression's low-level circulation has slowed its forward
motion and is now moving at 295/5 kt to the southwest of a low- to
mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue through today.
As the cyclone loses its convection, a turn westward then
west-southwestward is expected as the system becomes steered by the
surrounding low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast remains
very similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model
consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 18.4N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 18.5N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 18.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 18.2N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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