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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022
The infrared satellite appearance of Howard has continued to degrade
this afternoon with little to no deep convection remaining. The
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB supports
lowering the analyzed intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Howard
should continue to weaken this evening as it moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment. Numerical guidance suggests Howard will not reacquire
any sustained deep convection, however, periodic brief pulses of
convection are possible over the next 12 - 24 h. The official
forecast shows Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone within the
next 12 h, and it could happen as soon as this evening. The cyclone
should open into a remnant trough by 60 h.
Howard continues to move west-northwestward with an initial forward
speed of 10 kt. A slight turn to the west is expected over the next
two days before the cyclone dissipates. No substantial changes were
made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 23.9N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 11/1800Z 24.7N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 25.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde
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