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Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
 
Howard has been generally steady state in strength over the past 
few hours and the hurricane has likely peaked in intensity.  
Very recently, satellite imagery has shown a few breaks in the 
convection in the northern semicircle.  However, a blend of Dvorak 
T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, along with objective SATCON 
estimates, still support Howard as a 70-kt hurricane.

The cyclone is expected to begin weakening shortly.  Though the 
vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low for another day or 
so, Howard has moved over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and is 
pushing farther into a dry and stable environment.  The official 
forecast now predicts the storm to degenerate into a post-tropical 
cyclone in a couple of days.

The initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt.  A ridge to the northeast 
of the hurricane should continue to steer Howard on a northwestward 
trajectory.  As Howard weakens, its motion will likely gain a more 
westerly component when the shallower vortex is guided by the 
low-level tradewinds.  The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged 
from the previous advisory and remains within the tightly-clustered 
model guidance, closest to TVCE and HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 21.6N 116.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 22.3N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 23.2N 119.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 23.9N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 24.4N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  11/1800Z 24.8N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  12/0600Z 25.0N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
 
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