ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 Howard has been generally steady state in strength over the past few hours and the hurricane has likely peaked in intensity. Very recently, satellite imagery has shown a few breaks in the convection in the northern semicircle. However, a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, along with objective SATCON estimates, still support Howard as a 70-kt hurricane. The cyclone is expected to begin weakening shortly. Though the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low for another day or so, Howard has moved over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and is pushing farther into a dry and stable environment. The official forecast now predicts the storm to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt. A ridge to the northeast of the hurricane should continue to steer Howard on a northwestward trajectory. As Howard weakens, its motion will likely gain a more westerly component when the shallower vortex is guided by the low-level tradewinds. The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains within the tightly-clustered model guidance, closest to TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 21.6N 116.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.3N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.2N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:08 UTC