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Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
Howard has been generally steady state in strength over the past
few hours and the hurricane has likely peaked in intensity.
Very recently, satellite imagery has shown a few breaks in the
convection in the northern semicircle. However, a blend of Dvorak
T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, along with objective SATCON
estimates, still support Howard as a 70-kt hurricane.
The cyclone is expected to begin weakening shortly. Though the
vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low for another day or
so, Howard has moved over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and is
pushing farther into a dry and stable environment. The official
forecast now predicts the storm to degenerate into a post-tropical
cyclone in a couple of days.
The initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt. A ridge to the northeast
of the hurricane should continue to steer Howard on a northwestward
trajectory. As Howard weakens, its motion will likely gain a more
westerly component when the shallower vortex is guided by the
low-level tradewinds. The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged
from the previous advisory and remains within the tightly-clustered
model guidance, closest to TVCE and HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 21.6N 116.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.3N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.2N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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