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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022
Georgette is producing minimal deep convection this morning with
very little organization. Based on its current lack of organization,
it could become post-tropical at almost any time. The intitial
intensity of 30 kt is based primarily on continuity, though it does
fall in the range between the latest TAFB Final-T and Current
Intensity estimates. Various dynamical models suggest the cyclone
will weaken and become post tropical within a day, which makes sense
given it is moving into a drier, more stable region. Once Georgette
becomes post-tropical, it should continue to slowly spin down and
ultimately open into a trough within about 60 h. No changes of note
were made to the official intensity forecast.
The initial motion is estimated at 020/9kt, a little faster than
previously forecast. A low-level ridge is expected to build to the
northeast of Georgette today, which should cause the cyclone or its
remnants to turn gradually westward over the next day and a half.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted to the north, primarily due
to Georgette's recent faster north-northeastward motion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 16.8N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.5N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.2N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 18.6N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 18.4N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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