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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
 
Georgette is a poorly organized tropical depression. Visible 
satellite imagery is revealing that the low-level circulation 
is not well-defined, and deep convection continues to sputter. 
Unfortunately, there is no new satellite wind data over the system 
this afternoon to provide a better assessment of the low-level wind 
field of the depression. The initial intensity is being kept at 30 
kt based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. 
However, this may be generous. 

The depression has been drifting north-northwest at about 4 kt today 
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A slow 
north-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and this 
motion should continue through Tuesday night. The ridge is forecast 
to strengthen by Thursday, which should cause Georgette to turn 
westward along with an increase in forward speed. Models are in 
generally good agreement on this scenario, and only minor tweaks 
were made to the NHC track forecast for this advisory. 

Moderate east-northeasterly shear and a dry airmass should prevent 
Georgette from strengthening for the next several days. In a couple 
of days the cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters and 
encounter a more stable airmass. The combination of these factors 
should cause Georgette to degenerate into a remnant low. However, 
there is a possibility that the system could dissipate before that 
time. There was no change to the NHC intensity forecast from the 
previous one.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 13.5N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 14.0N 130.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 14.8N 130.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 15.8N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 16.7N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 17.0N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 16.2N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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