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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Georgette is a poorly organized tropical depression. Visible
satellite imagery is revealing that the low-level circulation
is not well-defined, and deep convection continues to sputter.
Unfortunately, there is no new satellite wind data over the system
this afternoon to provide a better assessment of the low-level wind
field of the depression. The initial intensity is being kept at 30
kt based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.
However, this may be generous.
The depression has been drifting north-northwest at about 4 kt today
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A slow
north-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and this
motion should continue through Tuesday night. The ridge is forecast
to strengthen by Thursday, which should cause Georgette to turn
westward along with an increase in forward speed. Models are in
generally good agreement on this scenario, and only minor tweaks
were made to the NHC track forecast for this advisory.
Moderate east-northeasterly shear and a dry airmass should prevent
Georgette from strengthening for the next several days. In a couple
of days the cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters and
encounter a more stable airmass. The combination of these factors
should cause Georgette to degenerate into a remnant low. However,
there is a possibility that the system could dissipate before that
time. There was no change to the NHC intensity forecast from the
previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 13.5N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.0N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.8N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.8N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 17.0N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 16.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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