ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Almost all deep convection has collapsed near the center of Georgette. Last-light visible imagery showed an exposed low-level circulation and satellite water vapor imagery indicates the presence of dry air near the inner core of the storm. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range between 35-25 kt. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt to represent a blend of the classifications. Georgette is drifting westward at 3 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. The tropical depression is expected to turn northward at a break in the ridge, though models disagree on the timing of the turn and this has created a large spread amongst the track guidance. However, most models do show the ridge restrengthening by mid-week and steering Georgette westward to west-southward through the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track prediction and closest to the model consensus aid, TVCE. Moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear caused by the outflow from Frank is expected to continue over Georgette for the next couple of days. This combined with the dry mid-tropospheric relative humidities around the cyclone will likely prevent Georgette from restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast shows Georgette maintaining tropical depression strength until day 4, when it is predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low. Though, if deep convection does not reform near the center, this could happen even sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 12.7N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 12.9N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 13.3N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 14.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 14.8N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 15.5N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 16.0N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 15.8N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 15.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Beven NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:05 UTC