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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022
Almost all deep convection has collapsed near the center of
Georgette. Last-light visible imagery showed an exposed low-level
circulation and satellite water vapor imagery indicates the
presence of dry air near the inner core of the storm. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range between 35-25
kt. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt to represent a blend
of the classifications.
Georgette is drifting westward at 3 kt, to the south of a weak
mid-level ridge. The tropical depression is expected to turn
northward at a break in the ridge, though models disagree on the
timing of the turn and this has created a large spread amongst the
track guidance. However, most models do show the ridge
restrengthening by mid-week and steering Georgette westward to
west-southward through the end of the forecast period. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track prediction
and closest to the model consensus aid, TVCE.
Moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear caused by the
outflow from Frank is expected to continue over Georgette for the
next couple of days. This combined with the dry mid-tropospheric
relative humidities around the cyclone will likely prevent
Georgette from restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast shows
Georgette maintaining tropical depression strength until day 4, when
it is predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low. Though, if
deep convection does not reform near the center, this could happen
even sooner.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 12.7N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 12.9N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.3N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 14.8N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 15.5N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 16.0N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 15.8N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 15.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven
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