ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Georgette has maintained a consistent structure today, characterized
by persistent convective activity to the south and southwest of the
estimated center. A subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates
that the storm has maintained its intensity, and recent microwave
imagery suggests that the low-level circulation remains well
defined. Thus the initial intensity is held constant at 45 kt,
consistent with the prior advisory.
East-northeasterly steering flow continues to influence the
west-southwestward motion, which has not changed much since the
prior advisory. The current estimated motion is 255/8 kt. Later
tonight, the steering currents are expected to weaken, resulting in
a slower forward speed by tomorrow. In association with the slowing
forward speed, track guidance diverges after 24-36 hours, and the
spread among the guidance members suggests high uncertainty in the
track forecast after 36 hours. Some members of the guidance suite
indicate a sharp turn toward the northeast, while others suggest a
continued west-southwestward motion prior to turning northward later
in the forecast period. The official track forecast is a compromise
between these solutions, close to the HCCA and slightly to
the west of the prior NHC forecast.
The intensity forecast has not changed much since the prior
advisory. East-northeasterly vertical wind shear, close proximity
to the much larger Hurricane Frank, and a relatively dry airmass to
the northeast of Georgette are expected to inhibit significant
intensification throughout the forecast period. The intensity is
forecast to remain steady for the next day or so, with gradual
weakening forecast to occur after the storm turns toward the
northeast. The official intensity forecast is in line with the
consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 13.3N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 13.1N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 13.1N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.4N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 14.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 15.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven
NNNN