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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022
Conventional satellite imagery shows that tiny Georgette has become
less organized during the past few hours. Although a recent SSMIS
overpass indicated that the inner core and eye-like feature have
remained intact, the deep convection in the east semi-circle has
thinned quite a bit, while the previously noted banding feature in
the north portion of the cyclone has become fragmented. All of
this is more than likely due to some increase in the northeasterly
shear magnitude. The satellite subjective intensity estimates have
decreased, and this advisory's initial intensity is set at 45 kt.
The moderate deep-layer shear should persist during the next several
days; some increase in the magnitude of the inhibiting upper wind
component is forecast beyond 48 hours. This, along with a dry
thermodynamic surrounding environment (45 to 50 percent RH in the
mid-portions of the atmosphere) should induce slow weakening through
the forecast period. There's still some uncertainty as to how long
Georgette will survive. The GFS, however, is the only global model
showing Georgette as a post-tropical cyclone or remnant low beyond
day 4. Therefore, the intensity forecast is an update of the
previous one and is similar to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
forecasts.
Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or
255/10 kt. The forecast philosophy is unchanged. An east-northeast
to a west-southwest-oriented mid-tropospheric ridge should cause the
cyclone to move generally west-southwestward through the 48-hour
period. Beyond mid-period, Georgette is expected slow its forward
motion, turn northwestward, and then northeastward within the
southeastern peripheral flow of larger and stronger Frank. The NHC
forecast has changed little from this morning's advisory and lies
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 14.7N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.8N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.5N 127.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 13.4N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 13.7N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 14.2N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 16.1N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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