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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022
There has been little change in Georgette's structure overnight.
Earlier microwave imagery and more recent geostationary satellite
data continue to suggest that the cyclone's low-level center is
located near the eastern side of the primary convective mass. This
is due to moderate easterly shear. Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates remained unchanged, and therefore still support an
initial wind speed of 45 kt.
The cyclone is moving south of due west, or 260 degrees at 9 kt.
Georgette is forecast to move west-southwestward to
southwestward with a deceleration in forward speed as the much
larger and stronger Tropical Storm or Hurricane Frank passes to the
northeast. The latest dynamical model guidance shows Georgette
moving farther westward in the next 36 to 48 hours, before the
storm stalls when Frank finally passes Georgette's longitude. After
that time, the guidance takes the smaller tropical cyclone
(Georgette) northeastward in the flow around the southeastern side
of Frank. Most of the models keep Georgette separate for the
next 3 to 4 days, but there has been a significant increase in the
spread of guidance tonight, and the uncertainty in the track
forecast is unusually large. The official forecast has been
adjusted westward through 48 hours to be in better agreement with
the various track aids. After that time, the forecast is a blend of
the GFS ensemble mean and the HFIP corrected consensus.
Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is forecast to continue
over Georgette during the next few days. This is likely to result
in little overall change in strength through 36 hours. After
that time, the official forecast calls for some weakening as the
vertical shear is forecast to increase. Although the NHC forecast
calls for Georgette to dissipate in 4 to 5 days, some of the
guidance suggests that this could occur sooner.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.8N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.3N 124.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.8N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 13.8N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 14.0N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 17.1N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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