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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022
The area of low pressure we have been monitoring more than 500 miles
southwest of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become
better organized this morning. First light visible imagery shows
cold convective cloud tops near the estimated center that also
appear to be rotating cyclonically. While we haven't had any recent
C-band scatterometer passes near the center of this system, a
recent KU-band scatterometer showed plenty of non-rain contaminated
winds to help confirm that a closed circulation exists. Subjective
Dvorak classifications were up to T2.0/30-kt from TAFB and
T1.5/25-kt from SAB. A recently arriving SSMIS pass at 1159 UTC
also showed a well-defined curve band wrapping at least 75 percent
around the northwestern side of the system. All these data indicate
a new tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity
will be set at 30 kt this advisory.
Currently the depression is moving westward at 275/6 kt. A large
deep-layer ridge is situated north of the cyclone which should steer
it on a general westward to west-southwestward heading over the next
day or so. Afterwards, the larger circulation of Tropical Storm
Frank is expected to get close enough to initiate binary interaction
with the depression. The net result of this interaction is that the
depression is likely to bend even more southward than the
larger-scale steering flow would initially suggest, and there is
some chance that Frank may capture the smaller depression. For now,
the track forecast keeps Frank and TD Eight-E separate, showing a
very slow west-northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast
period. This track forecast is roughly follows the TVCE aid early
on, but is slower later in the forecast period due to uncertainty
with interaction with Frank to the east. This initial track forecast
is of low confidence.
The intensity forecast is also challenging and strongly related to
how much interaction this depression has with the larger circulation
of Frank. Assuming the depression remains separate, environmental
conditions only appear marginally favorable for intensification in
the short-term, with moderate easterly vertical wind shear, and
plenty of nearby dry air that could get ingested into the small
circulation at any time. For these reasons, the intensity forecast
only shows modest intensification over the next 24-48 hours and
caps the storm at 40 kt thereafter due to uncertainty in its future
evolution near Frank. This is roughly in line with the latest SHIPS
guidance, but is lower than the HCCA and other consensus intensity
aids which are biased by the larger and stronger wind field of
Frank later on in the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 16.3N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
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