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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022
Organized deep convection associated with Frank ceased overnight,
and the tropical storm should become post-tropical very soon. The
weakening cyclone is moving northwest near 10 kt, and should
gradually bend toward the north over the next 36 h, then
north-northeast by Thursday, steered primarily by the low-level
flow. The latest TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity estimate is 35 kt, so
the initial intensity is set at that value. Continued weakening
will occur over the next few days while Frank gradually spins down
over cold water with little or no convection to sustain it.
Dissipation is forecast by nearly all of the dynamical models near
or just after 60 h. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or
intensity forecasts, both of which are near the model consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 24.8N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 26.1N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1200Z 28.0N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0000Z 30.0N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 33.7N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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