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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022
 
Only a tiny region of -45 to -50 degree Celsius cloud top 
temperatures remain with Frank southeast of its center this morning. 
In fact, the tropical cyclone appears well on its way to becoming a 
low-level cloud swirl devoid of any remaining deep convection. 
Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range from 30-kt to 
45-kt this morning. Absent of any recent scatterometer data, but 
noting that the passes yesterday afternoon had a large region of 
greater than 40 kt winds, the initial intensity was held at 40-kt 
this advisory. Frank should continue to gradually spin down over 
20-22 C ocean waters as it moves further into a more stable 
environment. The meager amount of cold cloud tops near Frank now 
already do not meet the necessary criteria of a tropical cyclone, 
and it is likely the storm will become post-tropical later today. 
Most of the guidance now suggests Frank will open up into a trough 
by 72 hours, and that is reflected in the latest forecast, showing 
the remnant low dissipating about 300 n mi west of the California 
coast.
 
Frank is still moving to the northwest at 310/9 kt. Even as Frank
becomes more shallow, the low-level steering flow will still enable
Frank to recurve between a narrow low-level ridge off of the Baja
California peninsula and a prominent deep-layer trough well west of
California. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and only
slight changes were needed for the latest track forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 24.0N 124.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 25.2N 125.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/0600Z 27.0N 126.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1800Z 28.9N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 31.0N 127.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z 32.8N 126.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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