ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Frank has continued to weaken while moving over increasingly colder waters, and deep convection is becoming more fragmented and diminishing in depth. Unflagged data from an ASCAT-C scatterometer pass at around 0500 UTC indicate that the maximum winds have decreased to just below hurricane force, so the advisory intensity is reduced to 60 kt. This is also the mean of the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Since the system will be moving over even colder ocean waters of near 20 deg C by 48 hours, the cyclone is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by that time, or sooner. The official intensity forecast follows the latest model consensus, IVCN, prediction. Post-tropical cyclone Frank is expected to dissipate by the end of the forecast period. Frank remains on its northwestward course with the initial motion continuing near 320/10 kt. There are no significant changes to the track forecast or reasoning. The cyclone is expected to move along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge associated with a strong high over the southwestern United States for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, Frank or its remnant should move generally northward in the low-level flow. The official track forecast is very close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 21.7N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 28.0N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 29.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 31.8N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 35.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:01 UTC