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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Frank has continued to weaken while moving over increasingly colder 
waters, and deep convection is becoming more fragmented and 
diminishing in depth.  Unflagged data from an ASCAT-C 
scatterometer pass at around 0500 UTC indicate that the maximum 
winds have decreased to just below hurricane force, so the advisory 
intensity is reduced to 60 kt.  This is also the mean of the latest 
Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Since the system will be moving over even colder ocean waters of 
near 20 deg C by 48 hours, the cyclone is likely to degenerate into 
a post-tropical remnant low by that time, or sooner.  The official 
intensity forecast follows the latest model consensus, IVCN, 
prediction.  Post-tropical cyclone Frank is expected to dissipate by 
the end of the forecast period.

Frank remains on its northwestward course with the initial motion 
continuing near 320/10 kt.  There are no significant changes to the 
track forecast or reasoning.  The cyclone is expected to move along 
the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge 
associated with a strong high over the southwestern United States 
for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, Frank or 
its remnant should move generally northward in the low-level flow.  
The official track forecast is very close to the simple and 
corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 21.7N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 28.0N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/1800Z 29.9N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0600Z 31.8N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0600Z 35.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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