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Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022
The hurricane is continuing to weaken as it moves over colder
water, and the cloud tops temperatures associated with the cyclone
are gradually warming. The various objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates have nudged downward, and the initial
intensity is reduced to 65 kt.
The cyclone will continue to move over colder water, reaching the
21C sea surface temperature isotherm between 36-48 h. Thus, steady
weakening should continue, with Frank becoming a post-tropical
cyclone between 48-60 h and dissipating completely before 120 h.
The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity
guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.
Frank is still moving northwestward or 320/10 kt, and while it
sounds like a broken record there is no change to the track
forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue northwestward
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during the next
couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the steering
currents should change some as cyclone should become more
vertically shallow, and a slower northward motion is expected. The
new forecast track is again an update of the previous track and
follows the consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 20.8N 120.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 22.0N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 25.3N 124.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 26.9N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z 30.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z 33.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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