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Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022
 
Frank appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time being, 
with bands of strong convection more prevalent over the southern 
portion of the circulation and a small CDO feature.  The eye has 
been apparent at times on enhanced infrared imagery, and 
upper-level outflow remains well-defined.  The advisory intensity is 
held at 80 kt, which is just above the subjective Dvorak estimates 
and close to the most recent SATCON value from UW-CIMSS. 
 
The hurricane is currently over SSTs near 26.5 deg C, and will be 
traversing cooler waters while moving into a progressively drier and
more stable air mass over the next few days.  Thus a slow but 
steady weakening trend is likely to commence today and continue for 
the remainder of the forecast period.  By 72 hours, Frank is 
projected to be over SSTs near 20 deg C, and should have degenerated 
into a remnant low.  This is consistent with simulated satellite 
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global models that depict 
practically no remaining deep convection by that time.  The 
official intensity forecast is a little above the latest IVCN and 
HCCA consensus guidance.

Frank continues its northwestward trek and is still moving at 
about 315/10 kt.  Over the next several days, the cyclone should 
maintain this general motion while moving along the southwestern 
periphery of a large mid-level ridge, and toward a trough in the 
vicinity of 130-135 W.  Later in the forecast period, the weaker 
and more shallow system should move generally northward following 
the low-level flow.  The official track forecast is not much 
different from the previous one and is close to the latest 
corrected consensus model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 18.7N 118.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 19.7N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 21.2N 121.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 22.7N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 24.4N 123.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 26.0N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 27.8N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z 31.0N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0600Z 34.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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