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Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Satellite images indicate that Frank appears to have reached a
generally steady state. Although the convective banding remains well
established on the south and east sides, there are pronounced dry
slots on the system's west side. In addition, the ragged eye feature
seen occasionally earlier today is no longer evident. There is a
large spread in the satellite intensity estimates this evening with
the University of Wisconsin ADT on the low side at 63 kt and
subjective estimates as high as 90 kt. The initial intensity is held
at 80 kt based on a blend of that data.
Frank is just about out of time to strengthen as it is nearing the
26 degree C SST isotherm. The hurricane is expected to track over
increasingly cooler waters during the next few days and move into a
progressively drier and more stable environment. These factors
should cause a steady weakening trend, and Frank is now expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone by 72 hours. This forecast lies a
little above the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus models.
Frank has been moving steadily to the northwest, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 315/10 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue as the hurricane moves toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level low off the
California coast. When Frank becomes a shallow and weak remnant low
in a few days, it will likely slow down and turn toward the north in
the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster
and slightly to the right of the previous one, trending toward the
latest consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 18.0N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 21.7N 121.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 23.2N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 24.7N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 26.3N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 04/0000Z 28.8N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0000Z 31.2N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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