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Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Frank has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The hurricane continues to produce bands of cold deep convection
near the center, but an eye is not currently apparent. Since the
various satellite intensity estimates are also basically unchanged,
the initial intensity remains set at 80 kt. The hurricane
continues to have excellent cirrus outflow in all directions
except the southwest.
Frank is running out of time to intensify, as it is now passing
over the 28C sea surface temperature isotherm and will reach waters
of 26C in about 24 h. The guidance indicates that some
strengthening is possible during the next 12 h, although the chances
of rapid intensification have diminished. Thus, the intensity
forecast now calls for a 90-kt peak intensity in 12 h, which is at
the upper edge of the guidance. After 24 h, the cyclone should
move over progressively cooler water, reaching 21C SSTs in about
96 h. This should lead to a steady weakening, and Frank is
expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h. It should be noted
that near the end of the forecast period, the GFS model shows some
rejuvenation of convection as the post-tropical cyclone interacts
with an upper-level trough to its northwest.
Frank continues moving northwestward or 310/10 kt, and there is
little change to the track forecast scenario. The cyclone should
continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast period
while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-level ridge toward a developing break in the ridge west of
California. The track guidance shifted a little to the north and
east at 96 and 120 h, and thus the new forecast track is also
nudged in that direction at those times. Otherwise, it is an
update of the previous forecast and lies close to the consensus
models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 16.6N 116.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 17.6N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 20.1N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 21.4N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 22.7N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 24.0N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 26.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z 28.6N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
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