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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Frank has become better organized during the past several hours, 
with increased convective banding close to the center and signs of 
a ragged eye forming.  However, the convection in the formative 
eyewall is still a bit sporadic, likely due to some continued dry 
air entrainment.  Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 
the 50-77 kt range, and recent ASCAT-B scatterometer data showed 
winds of at least 50 kt northeast of the center. Based on these 
data, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt.  The wind radii have 
been modified using the ASCAT-B data.

Frank will be in an environment of light vertical shear and over
sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 24-36 h, and 
this combined with the increasing organization in the inner core 
favors continued strengthening.  The new intensity forecast calls 
for a peak intensity of 90 kt in 36 h, and this lies at the top of 
the intensity guidance.  However, the rapid intensification indices 
of the SHIPS model call for about a 65 percent chance of 25-30 kt 
of strengthening in just the next 24 h, so it is possible the 
current forecast is conservative.  After 36 h, Frank should move 
over progressively cooler SSTs, with the system reaching 21C water 
by 96 h.  This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Frank is
forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.
 
The initial motion is now 305/10 kt.  Frank is moving along the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico,
and it should move generally northwestward during the forecast
period toward a developing break in the ridge west of California.
The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario and 
has again changed little since the previous advisory. Thus, the new 
forecast track is once again an update of the previous forecast.
 
It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette
are expected to come close enough to one another for some 
interaction.  Frank will be the larger and dominant system during 
this interaction, and the smaller and weaker Georgette will have 
little impact on the track or intensity of Frank.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 14.8N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 15.6N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 16.8N 116.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 18.0N 118.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 19.3N 120.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 20.6N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 21.9N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 24.0N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 26.0N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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