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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Frank continues to feel the effects of about 20 kt of northeasterly 
vertical wind shear, with the low-level center remaining just 
northeast of the current convective burst.  Various subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-40 kt range, 
and these have changed little since the last advisory.  Based on 
this, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The global models suggest that the current shear should ease over 
the next 12-24 h and allow Frank to gradually strengthen.  Between 
24-72 h, the shear is forecast to become light while the cyclone is 
over 28-29C sea surface temperatures, and this environment could 
allow for steady, and possible rapid, intensification.  The forecast 
peak intensity of 75 kt is unchanged from the previous forecast due 
to uncertainty as to whether Frank will have a good enough structure 
to rapidly intensify.  However, this is in the middle of the 
intensity guidance and could be conservative.  After 72 h, Frank 
should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this 
should cause weakening.

Frank is wobbling between a westward and west-northwestward motion 
with the current motion of 285/9.  A subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone should continue to steer Frank generally 
westward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward 
motion from 36-72 h.  After that time, the cyclone is expected to 
moved more northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by by a 
mid- to upper-level trough developing over the Pacific west of 
California.  The new official forecast rack is similar to the 
previous track through 60 h, and then is nudged a little to the 
north of the previous forecast in response to a northward shift of 
the guidance.  The new forecast is close to or a little south of 
the various consensus models.

It should be noted that Frank and the newly-formed Tropical 
Depression Eight-E are likely to come close enough to one another to 
interact.  The global models suggest that Frank will be the larger 
and dominant system during this interaction, and that the depression 
will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 12.4N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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