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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 102.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.3N 104.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 105.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 118.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 103.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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