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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
0300 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 101.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.9N 103.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 107.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 116.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 102.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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