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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Convection near the center of Estelle has actually cooled a bit from
earlier today, with cloud tops below -60C currently covering the
circulation center, though the areal extent is quite small. Despite
this activity, Dvorak satellite classifications continue to slowly
decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt for
this advisory. This brief convective resurgence is likely the
storm's last gasp before even cooler sea-surface temperatures below
22 C and an increasingly dry and stable airmass choke off the
remaining core convection. The latest forecast still shows Estelle
become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours, with this low
opening up into a trough in 2-3 days.
Estelle may be finally starting to slow down, with its latest motion
estimated at 290/10 kt. The track guidance continues to indicate
that the storm should slow down further over the next day or so as
Estelle transitions from being steered by a mid-level ridge to its
northeast to a broader low-level ridge located across the northern
Pacific. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted close to
the previous NHC forecast track and few changes were needed for this
forecast cycle.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 21.8N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 22.2N 124.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 22.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1200Z 23.0N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 23.2N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z 23.3N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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