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Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Since this morning, the central features of Estelle have become
more ragged in appearance. An earlier SSMIS microwave pass from
1415 UTC showed a tilted vortex structure, suggesting the vertical
wind shear is preventing the hurricane from strengthening. The
objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have changed
little and the initial intensity remains at 70 kt.
Model guidance indicates Estelle only has a brief period to
intensify before moving over sea surface temperatures cooler than 25
C. However, moderate north-northwesterly wind shear is likely to
persist through tonight and inhibit significant strengthening. A
steady weakening trend is expected to begin in a day or so and
Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within a few
days. The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the latest
consensus model guidance.
Estelle continues to move west-northwest at 12 kt. A mid-level
ridge associated with a strong high pressure system over the
southwestern United States should provide the main steering for the
next few days. As the cyclone degenerates into a post-tropical
cyclone/remnant low, it should follow the low-level winds and turn
more westward. The official forecast is very close to the latest
corrected model consensus, HCCA.
Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 18.2N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 21.8N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 22.6N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1800Z 23.4N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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