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Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Estelle is beginning to look a little better organized based on
satellite imagery. First-light visible pictures show the center
of the cyclone is now embedded in the central dense overcast.
Observations from Socorro Island confirm that they are within the
estimated tropical-storm-force radii. Subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 65 kt,
respectively. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, representing
a blend of these estimates.
Low to moderate northerly wind shear is expected to limit the future
strengthening of the system in the next day or so. However, warm
sea surface temperatures and plenty of near-storm environmental
moisture may allow for some slight intensification within a day.
Beyond 36 hours, Estelle should cross the 26 degrees C sea surface
isotherm and move over increasingly colder waters. This and the
drier surrounding environment should cause the hurricane to weaken
to a remnant low by the weekend. The official forecast is slightly
higher than the model guidance in the short term forecast and then
follows the multi-model consensus guidance after 36 hours.
The hurricane is moving west-northwest at about 12 kt. This
general motion is predicted to continue for the next few days as
Estelle is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Later in the
forecast period, low-level trade winds should turn the weaker
system westward. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the
previous advisory and only slightly north of the model consensus
guidance, TVCE.
Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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