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Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022
After strengthening during the late afternoon and evening hours,
Estelle's intensity appears to have leveled off some overnight.
The system is maintaining a central dense overcast feature and
outer curved bands. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 65 to 77 kt, and
the initial intensity is held at 70 kt based on that data.
Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the south side of a
mid-level ridge that is centered over the southwestern U.S. A
slightly faster motion to the west-northwest is expected during the
next several days as the ridge builds westward over the eastern
Pacific. The models are in good agreement, and the new forecast is
only a little faster than the previous one.
The hurricane is expected to remain in favorable conditions for
another day or so, therefore, steady to possibly rapid
intensification is possible during that time period. However, an
increase in northeasterly shear should cause the strengthening
trend to end in 36 to 48 hours, followed by weakening when Estelle
moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one
and remains at the high end of the model guidance, closest to the
SHIPS model.
The main impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and
west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 15.1N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 18.1N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 19.0N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 21.1N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 22.5N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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