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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
 
Estelle has continued to strengthen this morning. Earlier passive 
microwave imagery indicated the vortex was slightly tilted in the 
vertical, likely due to 10-15 kt of deep-layer northeasterly shear 
over the small cyclone. The mid-level eye feature was still open on 
the upshear side, but recent satellite trends show an expanding 
central dense overcast with -75 to -80 deg C cloud tops spreading 
over its center. The 12 UTC objective and subjective satellite 
estimates were all at 55 kt, but given the recent improved satellite 
presentation and an uptick in the ADT estimates, the advisory 
intensity is set at 60 kt.
 
Further strengthening is expected as Estelle moves within a moist 
and unstable environment over very warm SSTs. Of course, this 
assumes that Estelle is able to close off its inner core to help 
resist the negative effects of continued moderate (10-15 kt) 
deep-layer shear. The latest intensity guidance unanimously supports 
at least steady strengthening over the next 24-36 h, and SHIPS/LGEM 
favor rapid intensification (RI) with some indications that the 
shear could weaken a bit later today. The NHC intensity forecast is 
higher than the previous one and explicitly forecasts RI, generally 
between the multi-model consensus and the most aggressive SHIPS/LGEM 
aids. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and it 
is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Later next 
week, increasing shear and decreasing SSTs along its track should 
lead to a weakening trend on days 3-5.
 
Estelle is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A
mid-level ridge entrenched over the southwestern U.S. should keep
steering Estelle west-northwestward during the next several days.
There is increased spread in the track guidance on days 3-5, with
the GFS on the far northern edge of the guidance envelope and the
ECWMF and UKMET faster and much farther south. The NHC track
forecast is nudged just a bit south of the previous one in the
extended range, but still lies slightly to the north of the TVCE and
HCCA aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 14.0N 103.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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