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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022
Conventional satellite data and passive microwave imagery indicate
that the low pressure system NHC has been monitoring for the past
several days has become better defined this morning. The associated
convection has been persistent and is presently organized into a
couple of fragmented curved bands that wrap around the northern and
western portions of its circulation. The system now meets the
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and its initial intensity is set at
30 kt based on T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. The track
guidance is in good agreement that the system will maintain this
general heading and speed during the next couple of days while
moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, as it
is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
States. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone
early next week, which should keep it on a west-northwestward
heading with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5. The
official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance
envelope and closely follows the TVCE consensus aid. The current
track and wind radii forecasts keep tropical-storm-force winds well
offshore of southwestern Mexico, so no coastal watches or warnings
are necessary at this time.
The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening,
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h). The official NHC track
forecast is fairly aggressive and lies on the higher side of the
guidance, generally between the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS and the IVCN
consensus aid. The forecast calls for the cyclone to become a
hurricane on Sunday and continue strengthening through early next
week. By the end of the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing
deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 12.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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