ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 30 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 16 2022 Deep convection redeveloped in the northern semicircle near the center last night. High clouds from this convection briefly obscured the center but it has become exposed once again. The convection appears to be poorly organized and is not persistent near the center over time. This pulsing of convection is typical behavior of a central Pacific tropical cyclone as it goes through its weakening process toward dissipation. The center of Darby is visible in the South Point radar data and indicates the center passing south of the Big Island at this time. The current satellite intensity estimate from PHFO came in at 2.0/30 kt. This was the only subjective estimate available. The CIMSS ADT was 2.0/30 kt, and the latest available SATCON from 1208 UTC was 37 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is 35 kt, though this may be generous. Darby is a shallow system and is being steered by the low- to mid-level easterly flow. This steering current will remain in place until the system dissipates. The forecast track is just an update to the previous track. Although SSTs are expected to slowly increase along the remaining forecast track, vertical shear is forecast to increase above 30 kt tonight in both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance. Thus, reintensification is not expected. Thus, the forecast keeps the weakening trajectory of the previous forecast, which makes Darby a post-tropical system tonight and dissipates it by Sunday. If additional data are received that indicate the circulation has opened up to a trough, or if deep convection does not persist near the center, the system could be dropped as a tropical cyclone sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.7N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 17.7N 158.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:09:56 UTC