ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022 Deep convection associated with Darby remains limited, with only a few small deep convective bursts occurring over the past 12 hours. CIMSS SATCON intensity estimates ranged from 37 to 44 kt. The various satellite intensity estimates ranged from 30-40 kt from PHFO and SAB. Based on these data, and convective trends, the initial intensity remains at 40 kt. The initial motion is now 265/18 kt. Darby will continue to move westward in the low-level trade wind flow until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is in the center of the tightly-clustered track guidance, with very little change from the previous track. Darby will continue to weaken as it moves over 25-26C sea surface temperatures and ingests drier air. This combined with moderate shear will translate to the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 24 hours, and the global models are in good agreement that the system will dissipate to a surface trough by 36 hours. The new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 151.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.4N 154.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 17.2N 158.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs NNNN
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