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Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052022
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022
 
Deep convection associated with Darby remains limited, with only 
a few small deep convective bursts occurring over the past 12 
hours. CIMSS SATCON intensity estimates ranged from 37 to 44 kt. 
The various satellite intensity estimates ranged from 30-40 kt 
from PHFO and SAB. Based on these data, and convective trends, 
the initial intensity remains at 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 265/18 kt. Darby will continue to move 
westward in the low-level trade wind flow until the system 
dissipates. The new forecast track is in the center of the 
tightly-clustered track guidance, with very little change from the 
previous track.

Darby will continue to weaken as it moves over 25-26C sea surface 
temperatures and ingests drier air. This combined with moderate 
shear will translate to the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone 
by 24 hours, and the global models are in good agreement that the 
system will dissipate to a surface trough by 36 hours. The new 
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 17.4N 151.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 17.4N 154.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 17.2N 158.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
 
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