ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 22 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 14 2022 Although Darby's appearance was fairly impressive overnight, the hurricane has recently taken on a very ragged appearance, with the central dense overcast becoming much less symmetrical around the center as shear begins to impact the core convection. The initial intensity was estimated to be 85 kt, a blend of the Dvorak estimates from PHFO (77 kt), PGTW (90 kt) and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT (87 kt). The initial motion is 280/14, with Darby located on the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. An upper level trough to the NW of Darby has been drawing the TC a little north of due west. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, then turn more toward due west as Darby gets farther away from the influence of this trough, and becomes increasingly steered by the lower level flow. At that time, strong high pressure north of Hawaii will aid in an increase in forward speed. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and our official forecast lies just north of the the middle of the guidance envelope. Darby remains a small tropical cyclone over 26C sea surface temperatures, and is riding along a strong gradient of deep layer shear, currently about 20 kt near the center. The shear is expected to remain moderate, with marginal SSTs along the forecast track, so the guidance is unanimous about additional weakening. Our forecast remains just a touch more conservative with the rate of weakening shown by the guidance owing to the recent persistence of the well-developed core, but still shows Darby becoming a remnant low on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.0N 142.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.3N 144.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.4N 150.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 17.2N 153.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 17.0N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard/M Ballard NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:09:55 UTC